The future is uncertain by definition. In other words, the future is not something we can predict, in many cases it is an infinite world of possibilities, these alternative futures, counted from different sources, can be more or less justified, that is, they can be based on evidence of the present and the past or, on the contrary, can be supported by various superstitions.
To believe in one future or another, you might think that it is better to rely on the evidence of the present, but this path not only produces a future, so we will then explain three ways to create alternative futures. These futures can serve to create literary stories and also to do strategic analysis, what they have in common is that they are based on the evidence provided by the present.
- The creation of alternative futures is to reduce uncertainty and manage risk.
- Alternative futures determine the different ways in which a situation can evolve.
- Which can be used to improve decision-making or understand potential risks.
- It can also be used to understand and understand the steps that need to be taken to achieve a particular goal.
We must be aware that alternative future scenarios do not predict the future, they may limit these possible futures. These techniques are used when there is considerable uncertainty about what will happen next, when uncertainty is very low or the situation is so chaotic that it is impossible to determine the future, these techniques are not recommended.
They will be useful because they will force us to think about factors and futures that we would not otherwise imagine or take into account.
The simple scenario technique is, as one might imagine, the simplest, is a clear definition of what purpose we are dealing with, it can range from the future of the world to the future of a small town or our day tomorrow.
Once the object is identified, we will have to select the forces, factors and events associated with it, in the case of the future of a country, for example, you can determine the economy or the political system, equally a revolution would be a fact. that could have a clear influence on what the future would look like.
Once we have chosen the object and also determined all the factors, we will create four scenarios of the future: one in which everything remains the same, another in which everything happens in the worst possible way, another in which everything happens in the best possible way, and finally, another alternative different from the previous ones.
Then we’ll have to create a table with the scenarios on one side and the factors on the other, and indicate positive, negative or neutral values for each factor, depending on what these factors would look like in each of the four scenarios.
Finally, after eliminating factors that have the same value for all scenarios, we can start writing our futures. To do this, factors and their values must be taken into account; will largely determine what our future will look like.
“The future hides behind the men who determine it” – Anatole France-
In the analysis of alternative futures we start in the same way as in simple scenarios, define the object and look for the most important associated forces, factors and events, at this point it is necessary to assign values to the factors so that we only have the two that we consider most important for the future.
These two factors will represent two lines that we will draw in the shape of a cross, which will define four quadrants, that is, the four alternative futures. Thus, the factors will be positive on one side of the line and negative on the opposite side.
Then in one of the four quadrants both factors will be positive, in the other will be negative and in the other two we will have a negative and a positive, as a result, our alternative futures will be created depending on how the chosen factors develop, positively or negatively, taking into account each of the possible combinations.
Finally, the generation of multiple scenarios is similar to the analysis of alternative futures, the difference is that instead of choosing two factors we will select three, similarly the factors will be grouped in two, for a total of twelve different alternative futures. Contracts.
Although they seem very simple, these strategies are very effective, the biggest challenge is to find the most important forces, factors or events, once selected, just unleash the imagination to describe a future in which these factors will change.
For example, among the series of the moment, we have The Man in the High Castle, which portrays an event with driving force: the death of former U. S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, we just have to decide which event will change the future. so radically.